But Lux 360 Found a Brighter -and we think, Sensible Side-

From Harvey Chipkin’s report in the British online Hotel Report-a paid service from William Reed Business Media- http://www.wr-bi.co.uk/ - Reproduced here with publisher permission

At the first industry wide meeting following the fall financial meltdown and the recent presidential election, the consensus seemed to be that, yes, the industry faces a historically challenging situation that will last for awhile. But there was also a feeling that lodging is in a better position than other industries – and, happily, a few silver linings were perceived as well.
   

We’ve all heard the bad news over and over: global liquidity drought, drops in rate and occupancy, a dismal outlook for employment, and a possibly extended recession. But some leaders managed to find ways to take – if not a positive view -- at least a more nuanced one. Following are a few comments about why weeping and gnashing may not be the only appropriate attitudes.
   
Steve Joyce, who recently became CEO of Choice Hotels International, said he has been “the only optimistic person in the room at a number of events over the last few weeks.”  I strongly believe,” said Joyce, “that there is a paralysis factor and that you can’t base projections on two weeks of hysteria.”
   

“Forecasts in this environment,” he continued, “are entertaining but not much use.”

Other ‘smart marketer’ insights from Joyce, Mark Lomanno of Smith Travel Research; Peter Yesawich, CEO of The Y Partnership; Michael Kaufman, Chairman of National Restaurant Association; Patrick Ford, CEO of Lodging Econometrics; and Roger Thomas, Steve Wynn’s design guru for many years.

Joyce pointed out that PricewaterhouseCoopers, the industry accountants, had changed its projection for 2009 RevPAR in the course of six weeks from an increase of 1.5 points to a more recent projection of a decrease of 5.8.

    “That proves that they don’t know what they’re talking about,” asserted Joyce. He recalled the 1991 downturn “when we had a war and an energy crisis – and the end result was a 17-month negative period when RevPAR went down only 3.6%.”
   

Joyce sees a numbers of reasons to be hopeful, including “the best construction environment in ten years. Land prices are low and service people will actually show up and do the job.”
   

The Choice executive also looks ahead to the next few years as an excellent time for acquisitions, saying, “We will see a number of brands and portfolios that are attractively priced.”
   

    “Once we start breathing again,” Joyce concluded, “we will have to focus on positive actions like selling the U.S. to international visitors. That is a policy to which the new administration seems amenable.”
   

Mark Lomanno, president of industry statisticians Smith Travel Research, agreed with fellow panelists that 

    “The industry is in a good position to deal with hard times.” He said that the strength of demand has carried the industry in recent years and that “as soon as demand recovers, so will rate – and quickly.”
   

Peter Yesawich, CEO of The Y Partnership, a leading  travel marketing and advertising agency, said one positive he has seen in consumer surveys is “a perception that travel is more affordable.”
   

He said the industry is “responding appropriately” to the current situation by seeking to encourage people to travel through “creative pricing.” While he said that, “We never advocate discounting,” he added, ”We do advocate a host of other approaches – everything from a free night to free breakfast. You can generate new business even in this climate.”
   

Yesawich also came up with the astonishing statistic that “three of ten travelers will change their actual destination if they find an attractive enough deal.”
   

And Yesawich found another plus in the recent election, saying, “Perhaps the election of an African-American as president will wake the travel industry to the incredible potential of our diverse population. The U.S. now has more people named Rodriguez and Garcia than Wilson and by 2043 non-Hispanic whites will be a minority in the country. We must reach out to that new reality.”
   

A representative of the restaurant industry, Michael Kaufman, chairman of the National Restaurant Association, pointed to New Orleans as an example of how that industry – and lodging -- could overcome obstacles.  He said that after Hurricane Katrina, many New Orleans restaurants kept their staffs intact and stayed open. Now, with a much smaller population in the city, there are 15 percent more restaurants than before Katrina.
   
    “They found new ways to operate,” said Kaufman, “including smaller portions and lower prices. There will be a shakeout but we hope to come out of it better and more disciplined operators.”
   

And Patrick Ford, CEO of Lodging Econometrics, which monitors the global hotel construction pipeline, said, “Remember we are only nine months from the best year in our industry in history. We are systemically a much healthier industry than many others including, for instance, the auto industry and the airline industry.”
   

And taking a refreshingly holistic approach, Roger Thomas, who has been Las Vegas mogul Steve Wyun’s design guru for many years, said, “Maybe it’s a good time to take a breath and think about things we haven’t had time to think about -- like better staff training, imaginative ways to improve service, and reinventing our amenity programs. How, all in all, can we make the most of the buildings we already have?”
   

A much more productive approach than weeping and gnashing.