International travel is no longer the exclusive province of the rich. Over the next several decades, hundreds of millions of new entrants to the middle class will want not only the things—but also the experiences—that money can buy.

But where, o where, in this world can those hundreds of millions go?  And with what consequences to the rest of us middle class or upper class folks, or the super rich,  who have the best of all worlds right now when it comes to travel?

The authors proclaim ”Indian call-center employees, Russian petrochemical engineers, Chinese middle managers, and Brazilian salespeople are already scouring the web for deals on trips. They want to see Paris from the Eiffel Tower, relax in the Maldives, and play blackjack in Las Vegas.”

According to the United Nations World Tourism Organization, international tourist visits are expected to double soon, from roughly 800 million in 2008 to 1.6 billion by 2020.

However, only so many people can visit a particular building or beach in a given year. Where will all the other tourists go? This skyrocketing demand for travel will lead to a “scarcity of place” and to several  market responses:

First, most tourism-related prices, such as hotel room rates in popular cities, will continue to escalate as demand outstrips supply.—big time! 

Second, rationing—and the resulting waiting lists—will become commonplace.. As rationing becomes more prevalent, the very existence of waiting lists will, to rationed, economically sensitive destinations,  paradoxically, spur demand.

As we see it, the authors have barely scratched the surface of probabilities and possibilities—We were quick to post  a big , yet uneasy,  payday  for the luxury development and provider sector.
Any thoughts on the Malthusian threat to luxury travel?  Hershel Sarbin

harvardbusinessonline.hbsp.harvard.edu
Authors--Paul F. Nunes ( This e-mail address is being protected from spam bots, you need JavaScript enabled to view it ) is an executive research fellow with the Accenture Institute for High Performance Business in Boston. Mark Spelman ( This e-mail address is being protected from spam bots, you need JavaScript enabled to view it ) is the global managing director of Accenture’s strategy practice; he is based in London.