Apocalypse Scenario When End of Aviation Meets Tourism Time Bomb?
Reporter Bradford Plumer ventures forth in The New Republic’s August 27 issue with some keen observations leading to a potential “aviation apocalypse” as high fuel prices and the threat of climate change produce dramatic cuts in air service and routres, and tremendous shifts in travel patterns. Highlights-
*While aviation currently accounts for just 3% of man-made carbon-dioxide emissions, it’s one of the fastest-growing sources, and the true climate impact of flight is around 2.7 times that of carbon dioxide alone, thanks to the added warming effects of nitrous-dioxide emissions and jet contrails.
* John Whitelegg, a transportation expert at York University, estimates that requiring airlines to pay the full environmental costs of flight could rise far as much as five-fold.
* Author Plumer quotes from one book which offers the possibility that the U.S. could go from having nearly 400 primary airports down to 50 or so; instead of dozens of flights each day between New York and San Francisco carrying 2000 people apiece there might be only a handful carrying 800 or more in new extra-jumbo jets.
*Maybe the gloomy futurists have a point after all,” writes Plumer,
“and mass aviation could be coming to an end. No longer would air
travel be like the Internet or television – a cheap technology
available to virtually anyone, shaping our world in countless little
ways. If that happened, the result would mean more than just the end of
easy weekend jaunts to Bermuda or annual Christmas visits home. It
could mean major shifts in the economy, changes in immigration patterns
across the world, and even a remapping of the planet as we know it.”
Possible solutions? Plumer says that observers look to ingenuity and
technology as changing the current trajectory. But he does not see any
short term shift to biofuels or solar powered jets. Trains will be able
to take up some of the slack, as may dirigibles, though the former
cannot cross oceans and the latter are far too slow.
(So: A tourism time bomb combined with the end of aviation Certainly a
scenario more overwhelming than trying to figure out how to market to
luxury travelers during a slow economy. Harvey Chipkin)
We began our recent report on ‘Family Travel Rising’ with the following:
“All the evidence -- whether you are looking at the Amex-Harrison Group study we reviewed in our last issue, or the Ipsos Mendelsohn Affluence Report completed in September, -- shows Family First when it comes to disposable dollars.
We believe family focus is going to be front of mind for a long time to come, long after the punishing economic climate has subsided. Provider brands will be hard pressed to provide much more than kiddie or junior, or young adult activities. Smart travel agents will have to rise to higher levels of creativity and performance on the family front to sustain customer loyalty and earn the benefits of word of mouth in the neighborhood.”
And last week we caught our favorite global traveler-editor-writer-commentator during a quiet moment at home in England, the home of The Gostelow Report. She shared these thoughts:
• The hotel industry has been very slow to realize that this big expansion in family travel was going to happen. We’ve had “connecting rooms and you can put the kids next door”. They moved on to two swimming pools rather than one. One was kid friendly and one was not. But we really haven’t had anything more than that.
• We are seeing more and more bigger family groups. Operators are having a real challenge coping with such groups because it’s not a group per se, but they form their own groups. They want to be private. They want their own thing. .They tend to do their own excursions. They suddenly want a bus to take them all out. So it’s a real, real challenge. And so far the hotel industry has not realized this is happening. Now, it’s not only families. We’re also seeing more and more groups of friends traveling. And the hotel industry is not incentivizing enough – say a pair of DINKs come- Double-Income-No-Kids. There’s no incentive to them at the moment to bring along two other friends or even four other friends. And there’s big potential on the marketing side there.
Everybody knows her, but her bio is worth repeating.
Mary Gostelow, president of Gostelow Travel: Hottest Hospitality News Worldwide, is an inveterate traveler on the road more than 300 days a year. She owns and publishes the definitive Gostelow Reports, monthly market intelligence briefings to the top levels of the hospitality industry. She is the editor of KIWI's online Wow! Magazine, and also sends out a monthly update to top travel professionals worldwide.
At the same time, she is contributing editor to such publications as Elite Traveler, enRoute, Hotels and Le Magazine.
But Lux 360 Found a Brighter -and we think, Sensible Side-
From Harvey Chipkin’s report in the British online Hotel Report-a paid service from William Reed Business Media- http://www.wr-bi.co.uk/ - Reproduced here with publisher permission
At the first industry wide meeting following the fall financial meltdown and the recent presidential election, the consensus seemed to be that, yes, the industry faces a historically challenging situation that will last for awhile. But there was also a feeling that lodging is in a better position than other industries – and, happily, a few silver linings were perceived as well.
We’ve all heard the bad news over and over: global liquidity drought, drops in rate and occupancy, a dismal outlook for employment, and a possibly extended recession. But some leaders managed to find ways to take – if not a positive view -- at least a more nuanced one. Following are a few comments about why weeping and gnashing may not be the only appropriate attitudes.
Steve Joyce, who recently became CEO of Choice Hotels International, said he has been “the only optimistic person in the room at a number of events over the last few weeks.” I strongly believe,” said Joyce, “that there is a paralysis factor and that you can’t base projections on two weeks of hysteria.”
“Forecasts in this environment,” he continued, “are entertaining but not much use.”
Other ‘smart marketer’ insights from Joyce, Mark Lomanno of Smith Travel Research; Peter Yesawich, CEO of The Y Partnership; Michael Kaufman, Chairman of National Restaurant Association; Patrick Ford, CEO of Lodging Econometrics; and Roger Thomas, Steve Wynn’s design guru for many years.
Nat Ives, in Ad Age Online Sept 6, cites new data from Ipsos MMR which assures that well-off readers read print publications just as much now as they did 5 years ago.
Also, survey respondents making more than $100,000 annually said their average hours online had grown to 22.1 each week from 10.7, while the time they said they spent watching TV sunk to 18.6 hours from 23.7 in the 2003 survey. Read the full Ives story at http://adage.com/mediaworks/article?article_id=130685. Lux 360 attended the client briefing this week and will provide additional perspective in our Sept. 30 issue, interviewing Ipsos MMR President Bob Shullman.
Issues & Insights 
