Apocalypse Scenario When End of Aviation Meets Tourism Time Bomb?
Reporter Bradford Plumer ventures forth in The New Republic’s August 27 issue with some keen observations leading to a potential “aviation apocalypse” as high fuel prices and the threat of climate change produce dramatic cuts in air service and routres, and tremendous shifts in travel patterns. Highlights-
*While aviation currently accounts for just 3% of man-made carbon-dioxide emissions, it’s one of the fastest-growing sources, and the true climate impact of flight is around 2.7 times that of carbon dioxide alone, thanks to the added warming effects of nitrous-dioxide emissions and jet contrails.
* John Whitelegg, a transportation expert at York University, estimates that requiring airlines to pay the full environmental costs of flight could rise far as much as five-fold.
* Author Plumer quotes from one book which offers the possibility that the U.S. could go from having nearly 400 primary airports down to 50 or so; instead of dozens of flights each day between New York and San Francisco carrying 2000 people apiece there might be only a handful carrying 800 or more in new extra-jumbo jets.
*Maybe the gloomy futurists have a point after all,” writes Plumer,
“and mass aviation could be coming to an end. No longer would air
travel be like the Internet or television – a cheap technology
available to virtually anyone, shaping our world in countless little
ways. If that happened, the result would mean more than just the end of
easy weekend jaunts to Bermuda or annual Christmas visits home. It
could mean major shifts in the economy, changes in immigration patterns
across the world, and even a remapping of the planet as we know it.”
Possible solutions? Plumer says that observers look to ingenuity and
technology as changing the current trajectory. But he does not see any
short term shift to biofuels or solar powered jets. Trains will be able
to take up some of the slack, as may dirigibles, though the former
cannot cross oceans and the latter are far too slow.
(So: A tourism time bomb combined with the end of aviation Certainly a
scenario more overwhelming than trying to figure out how to market to
luxury travelers during a slow economy. Harvey Chipkin)
Ipsos Mendelsohn and American Express Publishing-Harrison Group OfferFreshInsight on Consumer Behavior in 2010
According to new studies from two blue-chip research sources, Ipsos Mendelsohn and American Express Publishing - the affluent are not only ready to travel -- they are frequently going to spend more on it. While the Ipsos study focused on intent and American Express Publishing on mindset, they both point to a surge in affluents taking to the road (Amex sees an increase of 6 to 8% in spending on all luxury categories).Interestingly, both studies agree on a positive attitude despite lingering concerns about the economy. Here's a look at the highlights of both 2010 studies.
LuxuryTravel 360 has long looked to the affluent as a burgeoning market in business and leisure travel, fueling growth in more affordable, common sense luxury - less glitz and glamour, but ready to pay extra for memorable family experiences and genuine local culture.
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