Stephen Rushmore of HVS: Always 'to the point' - and on target too
We
managed to catch up with Rushmore, CEO of global mega-consultants HVS, to see
how he views the current economic situation in the hospitality sector.There had been so many dramatic changes
since we had interviewed him less than a year ago. Here are some highlights on
how he sees it all playing out:
"The good news, we think, is that there will be
a turnaround by this time next year," Rushmore asserts. He goes further in
saying, "Meetings and leisure will come back strongly because of pent-up
demand."
On
the luxury front, Rushmore says, "The beauty of owning a luxury hotel today,
for those who can hold on, is that they will not have new competition for the
foreseeable future."
The development outlook is more positive outside
the U.S. where, says Rushmore, "there is still a lot of opportunity to develop
at most price levels - perhaps not 5-star but a lot of 4-star hotels to fill in
market gaps."
HVS, where Rushmore is pleased to say that the consulting
business is booming, is still doing "a lot of feasibility studies" because
"developers want to develop." Granted, those studies are mostly for mid-level
hotels,but for those who can get
financing, Rushmore see this as a good time to develop "because land is cheap
and so are construction costs."
At the same time, Rushmore adds, "A farsighted
luxury developer might do a feasibility study today for a hotel that might not
open until 2014 when the marketplace might be very different.
Finally, on our editorial view that the affluent,
particularly those with annual incomes of $150,000, now accessing ‘luxury for
less',may help lead the industry
of the recession - well, Rushmore has his reservations. His position: "While
luxury hotels might be accessible now, that will not be the case as rates will
rise quickly with the recovery. "
The challenge, says Rushmore "is
that to have a luxury hotel you need to provide luxury or people will get
upset. And there are huge fixed costs in running a luxury hotel so the
discounting cannot last. When the rates go up, those hotels will no longer be
accessible to those on the edge of affluence."