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International travel is no longer the exclusive province of the rich.
Over the next several decades, hundreds of millions of new entrants to
the middle class will want not only the things—but also the
experiences—that money can buy.
But where, o where, in this world can those hundreds of millions go?
And with what consequences to the rest of us middle class or upper
class folks, or the super rich, who have the best all worlds right now
when it comes to travel?
The authors proclaim: ”Indian call-center employees, Russian
petrochemical engineers, Chinese middle managers, and Brazilian
salespeople are already scouring the web for deals on trips. They want
to see Paris from the Eiffel Tower, relax in the Maldives, and play
blackjack in Las Vegas.”
According to the United Nations World Tourism Organization,
international tourist visits are expected to double soon, from roughly
800 million in 2008 to 1.6 billion by 2020 (see the exhibit “Travel
Explosion”).
However, only so many people can visit a particular
building or beach in a given year. Where will all the other tourists
go? This skyrocketing demand for travel will lead to a “scarcity of
place” and to several probable market responses:
First, most tourism-related prices, such as hotel room rates in popular
cities, will continue to escalate as demand outstrips supply. — big time!
Second, rationing — and the resulting waiting lists — will become
commonplace. As rationing becomes more prevalent, the very existence
of waiting lists will, to rationed, economically sensitive
destinations, paradoxically, spur demand.
As we see it, the authors have barely scratched the surface of
probabilities and possibilities. — We were quick to post a big, yet
uneasy, payday for the luxury development and provider sector.
Any thoughts on the Malthusian threat to luxury travel?
Hershel Sarbin
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