Melissa Bradley’s On My Mind message in the Sept-Oct issue of Indagare—family focused travel--just happened to be what was on my mind as I reviewed some of the most recent surveys on consumer travel behavior in a struggling economy.

In the November 3rd issue, covering the Latest Quarterly Survey from American Express Publishing/Harrison Group on Affluence and Wealth in America, is a most informative visit to spending in a troubled economy.

This past Spring, at the Amex Luxury Summit, I had a chance to visit with Jim Taylor, President of  Harrison Group, and get beyond the Summit Agenda. “How much interest among your  research clients in Word of Mouth ?,” I asked,

“There's an enormous supplier desire  to understand the storytelling issue in travel, and how people craft the stories they tell, “ Jim said. “And there's a lot of mythology about when people come home from a vacation, what they do with their story. Everybody wants to talk ‘word of mouth’ without really understanding how a person comes to be responsible for a recommendation that important.

International travel is no longer the exclusive province of the rich. Over the next several decades, hundreds of millions of new entrants to the middle class will want not only the things—but also the experiences—that money can buy.

But where, o where, in this world can those hundreds of millions go?  And with what consequences to the rest of us  middle class or upper class folks, or the super rich,  who have the best all worlds right now when it comes to travel?

The authors proclaim:  ”Indian call-center employees, Russian petrochemical engineers, Chinese middle managers, and Brazilian salespeople are already scouring the web for deals on trips. They want to see Paris from the Eiffel Tower, relax in the Maldives, and play blackjack in Las Vegas.”

According to the United Nations World Tourism Organization, international tourist visits are expected to double soon, from roughly 800 million in 2008 to 1.6 billion by 2020 (see the exhibit “Travel Explosion”).

However, only so many people can visit a particular building or beach in a given year. Where will all the other tourists go? This skyrocketing demand for travel will lead to a “scarcity of place” and to several probable market responses:

First, most tourism-related prices, such as hotel room rates in popular cities, will continue to escalate as demand outstrips supply. — big time!

Second, rationing — and the resulting waiting lists — will become commonplace.  As rationing becomes more prevalent, the very existence of waiting lists will, to rationed, economically sensitive destinations, paradoxically, spur demand.

As we see it, the authors have barely scratched the surface of probabilities and possibilities. — We were quick to post a big, yet uneasy,  payday for the luxury development and provider sector.
Any thoughts on the Malthusian threat to luxury travel?

Hershel Sarbin